El Niño likely to bring hotter and drier conditions to Guyana

May 13 2026

The Hydrometeorological Service of the Ministry of Agriculture is warning that El Niño conditions are likely to emerge within the next two to four months, bringing hotter temperatures, reduced rainfall, and an increased risk of drought and wildfires across Guyana for the remainder of 2026.

According to the agency, current observations show sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean are nearing El Niño thresholds, while climate models indicate a roughly 90 per cent chance of the phenomenon developing in the coming months.

El Niño is typically associated with drier-than-normal conditions and increased heat in Guyana, with impacts usually intensifying from July and continuing through the end of the year.

Heat conditions are expected to peak between mid-August and October.

For the May to July 2026 period, most regions are forecast to experience near- to below-normal rainfall, although parts of northern Region One could see slightly above-normal rainfall.

Despite the projected reduction in rainfall overall, Hydromet warned that heavy downpours and localized flooding remain possible, particularly in low-lying and poorly drained communities.

The agency said drier conditions are expected to become more severe between August and December, especially during the main dry season from August to mid-November.

Prolonged dry spells, elevated temperatures, reduced soil moisture, and mounting pressure on water resources are anticipated, particularly in inland regions.

Hydromet also warned that the conditions could trigger heat waves and significantly increase the risk of wildfires, especially in forested and savannah areas in Regions Six, Eight, Nine, and Ten. However, authorities cautioned that wildfire activity could occur in any part of the country during extended dry periods.

The agency noted that reduced rainfall and prolonged dry conditions may lead to declining water levels in rivers, reservoirs, and conservancies. Regions Eight and Nine could face short-term drought conditions as early as the end of July, with residents being urged to practice water conservation measures.

The agriculture sector is also expected to feel the effects of the developing El Niño conditions. Hydromet said lower soil moisture and extended dry periods could affect crop yields, disrupt planting schedules, and place pressure on livestock due to reduced pasture and limited water availability.

Health risks linked to excessive heat were also highlighted, with vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and outdoor workers expected to face increased danger from heat stress, dehydration, and other heat-related illnesses. Livestock and wildlife may also suffer from heat stress and reduced productivity if adequate water and shade are unavailable.

Hydromet said the seasonal outlook will be updated monthly and encouraged the public to monitor daily weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Watch Centre.

(Ministry of Agriculture, Hydromet Guyana)