Venezuela’s new leader may resist breaking with Iran, China & Russia

January 28 2026

U.S. intelligence agencies have raised serious doubts about whether Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, will fully align with Washington’s strategic goals by severing diplomatic and security ties with key U.S. geopolitical rivals including Iran, China, and Russia according to multiple U.S. and international sources familiar with classified assessments.

The intelligence concerns described by four officials familiar with the reports underscore growing U.S. unease over Rodríguez’s commitment to dismantling Caracas’s longstanding alliances with Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow. Those relationships, cultivated over decades under the late Nicolás Maduro, form the backbone of Venezuela’s security and economic networks.

Rodríguez was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president earlier this month after a U.S. military operation captured former President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3. Her inauguration was attended by envoys from Iran, China, and Russia signaling continued engagement with those governments even as Washington presses for a geopolitical realignment.

Despite U.S. public pressure for her to expel foreign diplomats and advisers tied to those states, Rodríguez has not publicly committed to such actions. Intelligence analysts say her stance remains ambiguous, raising questions within the U.S. national security community about Washington’s ability to shape Venezuela’s foreign policy.

In mid January, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Caracas for high-level talks with Rodríguez about Venezuela’s political trajectory. The U.S. intelligence assessments, however, indicate that the meetings did not materially shift the community’s view on her willingness to align fully with U.S. objectives.

A senior Trump administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, emphasized that President Donald Trump continues to apply “maximum leverage” over Venezuelan authorities and expects deeper cooperation, but analysts in Washington caution that Rodríguez’s calculus remains opaque.

Venezuela’s vast oil reserves among the largest globally are central to U.S. economic and strategic interests should relations normalize. U.S. decisions on reopening its embassy in Caracas indicate tentative shifts toward diplomatic engagement, but lingering doubt over Rodríguez’s intentions complicates investment and policy planning.

Breaking with Iran, China, and Russia would create openings for American energy firms and diminish the influence of geopolitical rivals in the Western Hemisphere. Yet officials say Washington is weighing contingency plans in case Rodríguez continues to hedge or pivot back toward traditional allies.

Rodríguez a veteran politician with deep ties to Venezuela’s oil sector has taken some steps aimed at placating the U.S., including releasing political prisoners and authorizing oil exports to U.S. buyers. However, analysts see her approach as a diplomatic balancing act rather than full submission to U.S. directives.

Critics of the U.S. policy argue that depending on a leader with historical links to Maduro’s regime carries risks, particularly if Rodríguez refrains from fully breaking with Caracas’s traditional global partners.

As Washington continues to test Rodríguez’s resolve and intentions, the trajectory of U.S. Venezuela relations will remain a focal point of broader strategic competition involving major world powers. U.S. policymakers and intelligence officials now face the delicate task of shaping Caracas’s future direction while guarding against a replay of old alliances that Washington has long sought to weaken.

Sources: Reuters, AP News, investing.com. The Business Standard